Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Where have the goals gone?

Goal scoring is down in the NHL this season from last year, and I think I know why.

(If you notice my math's off anywhere, feel free to let me know in an email, but I think it's pretty solid.)


At 5:55 p.m., March 20, 2007, Blogger Earl Sleek said...

If you notice my math's off anywhere...

James, didn't you get the memo? Shootout wins count as goals this year. There is no dip.

Next year, man-games lost to injury will also get tallied in the "goals for" column, look for a sharp increase in scoring then!

At 6:12 p.m., March 20, 2007, Blogger The Forechecker said...

Of course, the next step in the discussion is whether this is a good thing or not. Personally, fewer PP's per game sounds good to me. I'd rather see up-and-down action rather than a PP set up shop and pass the puck around.

At 6:37 p.m., March 20, 2007, Blogger Nick said...

There's probably not many people who would argue that 50 minutes or 4 on 5 is good hockey.

The games becomes more of a contest over who can draw the most penalties.

At 7:26 p.m., March 20, 2007, Anonymous PJ said...

If you want to analyze the data, it might be more useful to look at the rates rather than the actual numbers. What is the overall ESGF/60mins across the league? PP? PK? This might give a better indication if the decrease (and potentially the increase in ES goals) is a product of fewer penalties or something else.

At 7:31 p.m., March 20, 2007, Blogger James Mirtle said...

What else could account for a 16-per-cent drop in power-play goals?

Rates would certainly tell us more, but the numbers I've provided give us enough info to make the conclusion I did.

At 8:18 p.m., March 20, 2007, Blogger JavaGeek said...

15.1% PP time in 2005-2006
12.9% PP time in 2006-2007
(based on goalies ice time)
change of 17%...

At 8:25 p.m., March 20, 2007, Blogger Earl Sleek said...

change of 17%...

and just to complete the loop, I would postulate that a drop in the percentage of time spent on the PP would indicate that a lower percentage of that PP time is spent on the 5-on-3.

Thus even the 'quality' of the PP time would be reduced to a small degree.

(word verification: capnnhl)

At 8:55 p.m., March 20, 2007, Blogger JavaGeek said...

5 on 3's are at about 70% of what they were last year. Although the amount of time is slightly reduced due to a 17% increase in scoring during 5 on 3's... (scoring makes a 5 on 3 become a 5 on 4)

At 7:32 a.m., March 21, 2007, Blogger Tangotiger said...

I agree, there's no big mystery. You have 17% less goals scored in non-even situations, 17% less time played in non-even situations, and 16% less occasions in non-even situations.

The real story should be that penalties are way down.


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