Thursday, April 19, 2007

An early look ahead to Round 2

In NHL playoff history, 210 teams have gone up 3-1 in a best-of-seven series. Only 20 of those teams have gone on to lose the series.
One first-round series is already over. Five other series are at 3-1 and, based on the math above, the leading team has more than a 90-per-cent chance to advance.

If we follow through and say that those clubs up 3-1 will, in fact, advance, we can already tell quite a bit about how things will line-up in Round 2:

In the East... The Sabres will play host to the Rangers unless Tampa Bay can upset New Jersey. If Tampa does advance, they'd play Buffalo and Ottawa would host the Rangers. If New Jersey wins, they'll host Ottawa.

In the West... The Ducks will play host to Vancouver unless Calgary can upset Detroit. If Calgary does advance, they'd play Anaheim and Vancouver would host San Jose. If Detroit wins, they'll host San Jose.

(Keep in mind there's probably around a 50-per-cent chance we'll see one of the five teams that's down 3-1 comeback, so we'll have to wait and see.)

7 Comments:

At 1:51 PM, April 19, 2007, Blogger Kel said...

Sorry to pick on your math, but if the team leading their series 3-1 has a minimum of 90 percent chance of winning, the chance of all of them advancing is: .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = 0.59049 = 59%, and I'd say it's significantly more than 50%.

 
At 2:06 PM, April 19, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mathematics aside, as a Wings fan, I'm starting to get very nervous about playing the Sharks. "Nervous" being code for terrified.

Am I wrong about this?

 
At 2:28 PM, April 19, 2007, Blogger Earl Sleek said...

Am I wrong about this?

Probably not, considering the SJ power play went 13-for-31 in the season series (a staggering 41.9%).

I'd be sweating every time a Red Wing went to the box (if I cared).

 
At 2:40 PM, April 19, 2007, Anonymous Jeff said...

As a Canucks fan living in LA, I'm THRILLED. Not to play Anaheim, but just that I can actually go to a game. Already got tickets for Games 1 and 7.

James, any idea when Game 1 would be? The latest any Game 7 in round 1 could be is Tuesday. Would they start Wednesday, or wait a day or two? If they start the Ducks/Canucks on Friday or Saturday I'm screwed!

 
At 12:55 AM, April 20, 2007, Blogger PPP said...

Don't count those tickets yet Jeff.

Go Stars!

 
At 1:00 AM, April 20, 2007, Anonymous Matt said...

The good news is you may not have to worry about those Sharks, anonymous. The bad news is, its now a 3 game series.

 
At 11:28 AM, April 20, 2007, Blogger Earl Sleek said...

OK, now that the Ducks are advanced, I can add a little comment.

Vancouver would be an interesting match-up for Anaheim, on two levels:

1) it would mean that in the past two years, Anaheim will have faced the entire Northwest division over five straight series: (2006) CGY, COL, EDM, (2007) MIN, VAN?

2) it would be the second straight series the Ducks will face a goaltender who hadn't beaten them in the regular season. Backstrom was 0-1 against the Ducks; Luongo was 0-3. Of course, most of those games were calendar-year 2006.

Then again, here come the Flames; always trying to mess up my brackets :)

 

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