Sunday, April 29, 2007

Unbreakable

Most Goalie Playoff Wins
Associated Press

151 - Patrick Roy, Colorado, Montreal
94 - x-Martin Brodeur, New Jersey
92 - Grant Fuhr, Edmonton, Buffalo, St. Louis
88 - x-Ed Belfour, Chicago, Dallas, Toronto
88 - Billy Smith, N.Y. Islanders

5 Comments:

At 4:33 AM, April 29, 2007, Blogger Doogie said...

Brodeur's 33, figure he plays for five to seven more years (38-40), and he's 57 wins away. Going back to the start of the playoffs, that's 62 wins needed, or approximately four Stanley Cups, five conference championships, or eight CC berths. Awfully sketchy, I think.

 
At 1:12 PM, April 29, 2007, Anonymous Frank said...

In the new NHL with its salary cap and unrestricted free agency at 27, we will NEVER see long lived "dynasty" teams like Montreal, Colorado and Edmonton, ever again.

Like the NFL, today's Stanley Cup winners will likely finnish in the bottom half of the league within two or three years of their championship season - and have to start to rebuild after loosing half of their "star" players to free agency, because they have no "cap" room.

As a result, Roy's record, and all similar types of Stanley Cup appearrance, winning and scoring records are likely safe forever.

The only exception would be if the NHL expands the playoffs in the future to include all teams,and goes to best of 11 series(which I wouldn't bet against)!!!

 
At 1:44 PM, April 29, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Roy's numbers are unbelievable. Back when Hasek was with the Sabres I looked at Roy's stats (save percentage, goals against) and wondered what made him "great."

Now, with Miller in the net for the Sabres I think I might understand better--he doesn't have Hasek's gaudy numbers, but I'm more confident with him in the net.

But to play the contrarian, Miller has great players in front of him, as did Roy and Fuhr for that matter (not to equate the current Sabres with the Oilers or Montreal, though as a Sabres fan I'd like to).

Is that the difference? Is your ideal goalie a skilled team player who keeps you in the game and doesn't flinch in terms of worrying about the last goal they gave up (even when it shouldn't have got in)?

Basically, how significant really are GAA and WIN% in terms of evaluating the greatness of a goalie? And how much of Roy or Fuhr's greatness is the supporting cast? I'd love to hear you write about this subject James.

And oh yeah, GO SABRES!

p.s. This blog is awesome.

 
At 4:43 PM, April 29, 2007, Blogger Tyler said...

Roy's numbers are unbelievable. Back when Hasek was with the Sabres I looked at Roy's stats (save percentage, goals against) and wondered what made him "great."

I would submit that Roy's numbers - save percentage in particular - were great as well. Hasek's peak is quite possibly the greatest peak of all time but just because Roy's isn't quite as good is no reason to downgrade him. I'm not as impressed with the wins - Roy and Brodeur played on much better tams than Hasek.

 
At 5:02 PM, April 29, 2007, Blogger J. Michael Neal said...

Like the NFL, today's Stanley Cup winners will likely finnish in the bottom half of the league within two or three years of their championship season - and have to start to rebuild after loosing half of their "star" players to free agency, because they have no "cap" room.

Sigh. This simply isn't the case, or, at least, the NFL doesn't provide any evidence to support this argument. There are two reasons why reason there is so much turnover in the standings in football. The secondary reason is the extent to which injuries play a key role in success; since football has more injuries, and quarterback is such a key position, injuries affect outcomes more often than any other sport.

The primary reason for the success turnover is that you are working from a 16 game season, rather than an 82 game season. That increases the variance in expected outcomes enormously. Beyond the top couple of teams, who are clearly better than the opposition, who makes the playoffs in the NFL is mostly a random selection. Because everyone knows that it's only a sixteen game season, the effect isn't quite this great, but go back and check the NHL standings sixteen games into the season. As I said, it's pretty much random, rather than being the set of teams that an 82 game season indicates are the best.

I lost the spreadsheet when I switched computers, but I did an analysis of the first ten years after the NFL imposed the cap, and compared it to the last ten non-strike seasons. I tested every measure of competitive balance I could think of, and the only one that showed an increase in the number of different teams that won the Super Bowl. All of the others showed that there was no real difference. I looked at the number of repeat division winners; number of repeat playoff teams; number of different teams to play in the Super Bowl; number of games between first and second in each division; number of games between first and last in each division; average margin of victory in games; and about a dozen other measures. In fact, most of them showed a slight, and statistically insignificant, decrease in the amount of year-on-year turnover in success.

Salary caps do not have the effect that their advocates say they do.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home

Links to this post:

Create a Link


.

Free Page Rank Checker
eXTReMe Tracker