Thursday, May 03, 2007

Battlin' Brodeur

"We finally proved if we shoot pucks at Emery, he doesn't look too good. Right now, nobody expects us to pull this off. We're trying to create history, to a certain extent."
An interesting comment given Brodeur's been outplayed to this point in the series, at least according to the stats sheet.

The Devils (and Canucks, for that matter) have an almost impossible hill to climb now, as a team down 3-1 only rallies from that deficit just more than 9 per cent of the time, historically speaking. The odds of recovering from being down 3-1 in the NHL quarter-finals are even slimmer, as just three teams in 62 series (5 per cent) that fit that description have come back to win.

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At 7:56 p.m., May 03, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As a Philly fan it pains me to recall that the Devils contributed to that 9% stat. 2000 Conference Finals vs. the Flyers. Brodeur and Co. rallied from 3-1 on the way to the Cup. What's scary is the number of guys from that team still playing as Devils now: Elias, Gomez, Madden, Pandolfo, Brylin, Rafalski, White and Brodeur. Not insignificant guys either. Never count them out.

At 12:48 a.m., May 04, 2007, Blogger J. Michael Neal said...

I should point out that, while not disputing that any team down 3-1 is unlikely to win the series, this is not a very good way to look at the probability of such an event occruing. This despite the fact that Anaheim just scored to end their series.

This is the perfect situation in which to use Bayesian statistical methods, rather than classical methods. Before the series begins, we have information as to the relative quality of the two teams, namely their regular season records.

The odds of a team that finished 15 points ahead of its opponent coming back from down 3-1 are not the same as the odds of a team that finished 15 points behind its opponent doing the same. While the numbers as to how often teams win the series after certain prior outcomes are interesting, it tells us a lot less about the odds in a particular series than it initially seems.

At 12:53 a.m., May 04, 2007, Blogger James Mirtle said...

Looking forward to seeing that breakdown on your blog, big guy. :)

At 1:13 a.m., May 04, 2007, Anonymous David Johnson said...

If you watched last nights game closely you would noticed that Emery gave up a ton of rebounds but the Devils didn't drive the net to capitalize on them (except for their only goal). In the Pittsburgh series Roberts, Staal and to some extent Crosby were successful when they got in front of the net to capitalize on deflections and rebounds. It is not really the Devils style to play an agressive forecheck and crash the net but I think if they did they would have more success on Emery. The Ottawa defense is taking away a lot of the cross ice passes and finesse plays so I think the Devils need to adjust their strategy to shoot the puck and attack the rebound. And considering that Ottawa has scored just 8 goals since the first game of game 1 (the equivalent of 4 games with the OT) and one of those goals was an empty net goal and another was on a goalie interference by Fisher, it isn't going to take much more offensive production by the Devils to win these games.

At 9:43 a.m., May 04, 2007, Blogger mike said...

Only a man who is convinced that fans show up at hockey games to see goalies play the puck behind the net while being protected from any contact would say this about his opposing netminder when he and his team are down 3-1 in games in a best-of-seven series. Only a man who feels that hockey's problems can be fixed by allowing ever larger pieces of equipment to be worn by goalies would say something this stupid about Ray Emery's play against the NJ Devils. Only the most overrated hockey player of the last 25 years could sound this stupid--criticizing his opponent while that opponent is performing at a much higher level than he is--after giving up two more unbelievably soft goals in a crucial playoff game.

Is there any netminder in the NHL who has given up as many softies in the playoffs as this guy? I don't care how many Cups he has won, if the Devils had Mike Richter, Ed Belfour, Mike Vernon, or Dominik Hasek that team would have won five Cups in a row. Once again he is being outplayed in the playoffs by someone widely perceived as an inferior goalie to him...when does the hype job or the whining ever stop with this athlete?

At 9:44 a.m., May 04, 2007, Blogger PPP said...

As Anonymous points out, there are quite a few players left that pulled the necessary trick against a better team.


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