Tuesday, May 15, 2007

The odds against Buffalo

Well, as bleak as it may be, I might as well keep this up.

Down 3-0, the Buffalo Sabres are going to be written off by all but their most ardent fans — and with good reason. You don't come back from a deficit like this very often, and there have been three decade gaps between the only two times it's happened in the NHL.

The good news? It's been 32 years since the expansion New York Islanders last turned the trick in the second round of the 1975 playoffs against Pittsburgh, so someone's due to do the impossible.

Courtesy of whowins.com, here's a look at the historical chance to win the series for teams in Lindy Ruff and Co.'s position heading into tomorrow's Game 4:

When down 3-0 in a best-of-seven series: 1.4% (2-146)
When down 3-0 in the conference finals: 0% (0-36)
When home team loses first three games: 3.3% (1-29)
When home team loses first three conference finals games: 0% (0-6)

Trailing team's record in Game 4
After dropping first three games: 34.5%
After team with home ice drops first three: 30%
After team with home ice drops first three in conference finals: 33.3%


At 12:54 p.m., May 15, 2007, Blogger FAUXRUMORS said...

1) The sabres aren't just losign these games they look bad losing. If not for Miller tlast night should have been 6-0!
2) Psychologicly the Sabres look dead. The next game could very well be quite lop sided if Miller doesn't continue his heroics.
3) BTW can someone explain how Ruff is a Adams Finalist?!?

At 1:32 p.m., May 15, 2007, Anonymous dave in Rocha said...

"3) BTW can someone explain how Ruff is a Adams Finalist?!?"

Easy, the Adams award is for the regular season. The Sabres had the best record during the regular season, despite a LOT of injuries up front. For a while, they had 6 Amerk forwards in the lineup at once. Think about that, half of their forwards were AHLers, and the Sabres kept winning.

For the record, while I think Lindy is usually a great playoff coach (see his 4 Conference Final appearances in 9 years stat), I think he's not doing his best in this series. It took him until the 3rd period last night to change the personnel on the PP after nearly 3 full games of futility.

At 5:00 p.m., May 15, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did anyone else notice the irony when "what's it all about alfie" took the stick to chops last night? Alfie accused Tallinder of diving- I though they were going to have to airlift Alfie out - looked like Lee Harvey took him out - not a scratch on his mug!!!


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