Tuesday, June 12, 2007

2007 UFAs
The goaltenders

Player Tm Record 2006-07 cap hit 2007-08 est. price
1 Giguere Ana 36-10-8 $3.990 $5.5 - 7 starter
2 Hasek Det 38-11-6 $1.850 $3.5 - 4.5 starter
3 Belfour Fla 27-17-10 $2.480 $1.7 - 2.2 starter
4 Garon LA 13-10-6 $1.216 $1.7 - 2 split
5 Joseph Phx 18-31-2 $2.900 $1.5 - 2.5 split
6 Aebischer Mon 13-12-3 $1.900 $1.2 - 1.6 backup
7 Thibault Pit 7-8-2 $1.500 $0.8 - 1.2 backup
8 Weekes NYR 4-6-2 $1.950 $0.8 - 1 backup
9 Esche Phi 5-9-1 $1.000 $0.7 - 1.1 backup
10 Markkanen Edm 5-9-1 $0.850 $0.6 - 0.8 backup
11 Boucher Cmb 2-12-3 $0.475 $0.5 - 0.8 backup
12 McLennan Cal 3-5-1 $0.625 $0.5 - 0.7 backup
13 MacDonald Bos 3-7-2 $0.500 $0.5 - 0.6 backup
14 Aubin Tor 3-5-2 $0.525 $0.5 - 0.6 backup

I suppose the most important thing to consider when eyeing this list is, who needs a goalie?

In terms of starters, Boston, Columbus, Detroit, Florida, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Toronto could all potentially be in the market. (Not surprisingly, only one of those teams made the postseason last year.)

There are a great deal more teams searching for backups, including some teams like Vancouver where the second netminder will have to pick up janitorial duties on the side to earn his minimum salary.

The bidding for the top-end netminders, whichever ones happen to be available, should work in their favour, although if Giguere and Hasek re-sign with their clubs (as expected), many of the above teams will turn to a trade rather than take a chance on a UFA.

Potential good buys from the lot include Mathieu Garon, who was decent during an injury-plagued campaign in 2006-07, and perhaps Curtis Joseph as a backup in a time-splitting situation. Cujo's return to Toronto, his hometown, has been oft-rumoured this off-season, and would make some sense given he could potentially take the reins from Andrew Raycroft if the youngster faltered.

If Giguere re-signs in Anaheim, suddenly Ilya Bryzgalov looks to be on the move, as does one of the netminders in San Jose. Minnesota would also like to deal Manny Fernandez, meaning we've got three potential No. 1s in play via a trade and zero on the UFA market.

The most important position in hockey isn't going to be an easy one to fill this summer.



At 1:22 p.m., June 12, 2007, Blogger Jes Gőlbez said...


You ought to put the goalies' SV% to show their true skill. W-L-T records are awfully team dependent.

Joseph would be an awful signing for the Leafs. They need an upgrade in goal, or at least a 1b goalie who is very good. CuJo is no longer very good, and has been one of the worst goalies in the NHL over the post-lockout period.

Now that Backstrom is off the Market, the list of available goalies is really thin on talent. Only Giguere, Hasek, and Aebischer have above-average talent and #1 ability. The rest are all backups at very best.

At 1:38 p.m., June 12, 2007, Anonymous Indrew said...

Anyone want Gerber?

At 1:55 p.m., June 12, 2007, Anonymous kwyjibo said...

I had no idea how truly terrible Brian Boucher was this year.

At 1:59 p.m., June 12, 2007, Blogger James Mirtle said...

You ought to put the goalies' SV% to show their true skill. W-L-T records are awfully team dependent.

I'm assuming those here know the relative skill level of these guys, and I merely want to separate the starters from the backups.

At 2:18 p.m., June 12, 2007, Blogger Jes Gőlbez said...


I guess you'd be shocked at how little many fans know.

I did the SV% analysis at my own site, and you can see how thin the market really is. CuJo is certainly not worthy of being considered for any split position.

As for Boucher, he's been terrible for years now. I don't understand why any NHL GM's keep giving him chances. You'd be better off with an AHL veteran.

At 2:22 p.m., June 12, 2007, Blogger Matt said...

I take it Ty Conklin is THAT bad to not even be listed.

Safe to say I hope Buffalo doesn't re-sign him.

At 2:40 p.m., June 12, 2007, Blogger J. Michael Neal said...

Jes, could you link to the SV% analysis? I'm curious to see how you tried to remove team effects from that number, as it plays a role there, too.

At 3:14 p.m., June 12, 2007, Blogger saskhab said...

If Giguere and Hasek re-sign, I think this is officially the weakest ever UFA goaltending pool.

Needless to say, the trade market for goalies is finally going to get hot.

SV% is a better stat than record for skill level, but it's still tricky. I've always wanted to do a way more detailed goaltending stat sheet. I want SCSV% (scoring chance save percentage), stats when the game is tied or within 1 goal either way, point shot %, etc. There are so many potential stat categories that I think could be way more telling.

At 6:31 p.m., June 12, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aebischer has above average talent?
For what league?
I'd rather sign that Steelback Beer guy.

At 8:39 p.m., June 12, 2007, Anonymous Nick said...

I don't think Hasek gets more than 1 mil, although, it will probablly be incentive laden like his current deal.

At 8:41 p.m., June 12, 2007, Blogger James Mirtle said...

Given the number of starts he had and the record he put up, I can't see Hasek getting any less than $3-million this season, whether that's in salary or easy-to-hit bonuses.

If he is under that figure, he needs a new agent.

At 11:25 p.m., June 12, 2007, Blogger JavaGeek said...

Did Burke retire? He's a UFA...

At 11:52 p.m., June 12, 2007, Blogger James Mirtle said...

I'd be surprised to see him get another contract.


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