Accounting for inflation
This is a topic that's become a bit of a recurring issue among a few bloggers: How have NHL revenues changed coming out of the lockout?
We've only had two seasons, so the data set is certainly incomplete, but given historical figures, it would seem the league has had a hard time continuing to grow revenues since the 2003-04 season.
Here's my first attempt to adjust NHL revenues to account for inflation, putting every season in 1993-94 dollars (the first season we have the data):
Keep in mind that the 1994-95 season was a 48-game campaign.
I haven't included any allowances to account for expansion, which ended in 2000-01 when Columbus and Minnesota joined the fold, or the rise in the Canadian dollar. The creation of new teams and new rinks certainly fuelled the NHL's boon through the late '90s, but there's been a considerable levelling off ever since the end of Operation Add Teams.
And the past two seasons, minus inflation, revenues in real dollars are below 2002-03 levels.
No one's come out and said it quite yet, so perhaps I'll be the first: I expect the cap will go down for next season, ever so slightly, and in my mind, it's seems unlikely it will climb much higher than $55-million over the course of the agreement.
Take that for what it's worth.
|Season||NHL revenues||adj. for inflation|
|2004-05||no hockey here||sad time for James |
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