What players drive their team's offence?
A look at the key contributers at the quarter point
I took a look at the top defensive defencemen yesterday, something that will probably be a recurring theme, but with the new stats engine at Behind The Net, I decided today's challenge would be to see which players improve their team's offence the most when they're on the ice.
(Oilogosphere spokesman Tyler Dellow joked that I'd devised a pretty complicated way to come up with 'Sidney Crosby' as the answer.)
I've split this into defencemen and forwards, and will look at three different stats: even strength scoring, even strength shots on goal and power play scoring.
First, the defenders...
Blueliners who improve even strength scoring the most:
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | GFON/60 | GFOFF/60 | diff | |
| 1 | KAREL RACHUNEK | D | N.J | 16 | 4.02 | 1.44 | 2.58 |
| 2 | NICLAS HAVELID | D | ATL | 21 | 3.99 | 1.5 | 2.49 |
| 3 | FILIP KUBA | D | T.B | 21 | 4.4 | 1.98 | 2.42 |
| 4 | PAVEL KUBINA | D | TOR | 18 | 4.88 | 2.57 | 2.31 |
| 5 | RANDY JONES | D | PHI | 17 | 4.33 | 2.18 | 2.15 |
| 6 | PAUL RANGER | D | T.B | 20 | 4.09 | 2.1 | 1.99 |
| 7 | NICKLAS LIDSTROM | D | DET | 21 | 4.02 | 2.08 | 1.94 |
| 8 | TOBIAS ENSTROM | D | ATL | 21 | 3.54 | 1.86 | 1.68 |
| 9 | KENT HUSKINS | D | ANA | 22 | 3.11 | 1.55 | 1.56 |
| 10 | ZBYNEK MICHALEK | D | PHX | 12 | 2.94 | 1.42 | 1.52 |
Blueliners who improve even strength shots on goal the most:
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | SFON/60 | SFOFF/60 | diff | |
| 1 | WADE REDDEN | D | OTT | 20 | 36.7 | 26.9 | 9.8 |
| 2 | MAREK ZIDLICKY | D | NSH | 19 | 30 | 21.6 | 8.4 |
| 3 | NICKLAS LIDSTROM | D | DET | 21 | 35.5 | 27.8 | 7.7 |
| 4 | ED JOVANOVSKI | D | PHX | 19 | 31.7 | 24.4 | 7.3 |
| 5 | PETTERI NUMMELIN | D | MIN | 16 | 29.3 | 22.3 | 7 |
| 6 | DION PHANEUF | D | CGY | 21 | 28.4 | 22 | 6.4 |
| 7 | SERGEI GONCHAR | D | PIT | 21 | 27.7 | 21.4 | 6.3 |
| 8 | MAGNUS JOHANSSON | D | CHI | 13 | 28.5 | 22.5 | 6 |
| 9 | MATTHEW CARLE | D | S.J | 18 | 28.6 | 23 | 5.6 |
| 10 | KURTIS FOSTER | D | MIN | 18 | 26.8 | 21.3 | 5.5 |
Blueliners who improve power play scoring the most:
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | GFON/60 | GFOFF/60 | diff | |
| 1 | DENNIS SEIDENBERG | D | CAR | 13 | 18.48 | 7.07 | 11.41 |
| 2 | KURTIS FOSTER | D | MIN | 18 | 12.85 | 4.32 | 8.53 |
| 3 | JAROSLAV SPACEK | D | BUF | 11 | 8.7 | 1.41 | 7.29 |
| 4 | DENIS GREBESHKOV | D | EDM | 16 | 8.39 | 2.09 | 6.3 |
| 5 | TOBIAS ENSTROM | D | ATL | 21 | 5.58 | 0 | 5.58 |
| 6 | ANDREI MARKOV | D | MTL | 21 | 11.19 | 5.69 | 5.5 |
| 7 | MIKE MOTTAU | D | N.J | 16 | 10.39 | 4.93 | 5.46 |
| 8 | BRUNO GERVAIS | D | NYI | 18 | 8.27 | 3.54 | 4.73 |
| 9 | KIMMO TIMONEN | D | PHI | 19 | 9.58 | 4.87 | 4.71 |
| 10 | BRYAN MCCABE | D | TOR | 15 | 5.97 | 1.47 | 4.5 |
It's certainly no surprise to see Nicklas Lidstrom in there a few times. I'll come back to these guys later.
Onto the forwards ...
Forwards who improve even strength scoring the most:
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | GFON/60 | GFOFF/60 | diff | |
| 1 | ERIK COLE | RW | CAR | 14 | 5.3 | 2.44 | 2.86 |
| 2 | ALEXEI PONIKAROVSKY | LW | TOR | 18 | 4.56 | 1.95 | 2.61 |
| 3 | ILYA KOVALCHUK | RW | ATL | 21 | 4.08 | 1.54 | 2.54 |
| 4 | COREY PERRY | RW | ANA | 22 | 3.75 | 1.25 | 2.5 |
| 5 | JASON SPEZZA | C | OTT | 14 | 4.44 | 1.98 | 2.46 |
| 6 | VINCENT LECAVALIER | C | T.B | 21 | 4.52 | 2.06 | 2.46 |
| 7 | MATS SUNDIN | C | TOR | 21 | 4.81 | 2.4 | 2.41 |
| 8 | EVGENI MALKIN | C | PIT | 21 | 3.71 | 1.35 | 2.36 |
| 9 | ALEX TANGUAY | LW | CGY | 21 | 4.31 | 1.95 | 2.36 |
| 10 | PAUL STASTNY | C | COL | 20 | 4.08 | 1.85 | 2.23 |
Forwards who improve even strength shots on goal the most:
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | SFON/60 | SFOFF/60 | diff | |
| 1 | HENRIK ZETTERBERG | LW | DET | 21 | 39.5 | 26.4 | 13.1 |
| 2 | TOMAS HOLMSTROM | LW | DET | 21 | 38.9 | 27.4 | 11.5 |
| 3 | DARREN HAYDAR | RW | ATL | 10 | 30.6 | 19.5 | 11.1 |
| 4 | EVGENI MALKIN | C | PIT | 21 | 31.1 | 20.2 | 10.9 |
| 5 | CHRIS KUNITZ | LW | ANA | 22 | 30.4 | 19.6 | 10.8 |
| 6 | BRIAN GIONTA | RW | N.J | 21 | 32.3 | 21.6 | 10.7 |
| 7 | ALEXANDER OVECHKIN | LW | WSH | 21 | 33.3 | 24.1 | 9.2 |
| 8 | PAVEL DATSYUK | C | DET | 21 | 36.9 | 27.9 | 9 |
| 9 | DAYMOND LANGKOW | C | CGY | 20 | 30.7 | 21.8 | 8.9 |
| 10 | TRAVIS ZAJAC | C | N.J | 21 | 31.1 | 22.3 | 8.8 |
Forwards who improve power play scoring the most:
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | GFON/60 | GFOFF/60 | diff | |
| 1 | ALES KOTALIK | RW | BUF | 17 | 10.15 | 0.94 | 9.21 |
| 2 | JAROME IGINLA | RW | CGY | 21 | 8.59 | 0 | 8.59 |
| 3 | TIM CONNOLLY | C | BUF | 14 | 10.34 | 2.55 | 7.79 |
| 4 | JOE PAVELSKI | LW | S.J | 21 | 10.55 | 2.81 | 7.74 |
| 5 | LEE STEMPNIAK | LW | STL | 19 | 9.21 | 1.54 | 7.67 |
| 6 | RYANE CLOWE | LW | S.J | 11 | 11.04 | 3.8 | 7.24 |
| 7 | MIKE RICHARDS | C | PHI | 19 | 10.64 | 3.88 | 6.76 |
| 8 | JERE LEHTINEN | RW | DAL | 21 | 12.55 | 5.85 | 6.7 |
| 9 | JONATHAN TOEWS | C | CHI | 18 | 10.58 | 3.89 | 6.69 |
| 10 | HENRIK SEDIN | C | VAN | 21 | 9.97 | 3.42 | 6.55 |
Okay, that's all kinds of numbers. But it does give you an idea of the type of players we're talking about here (with a few niggling exceptions, something influenced by the fact we're not very far into the season).
For most of these players, they are the engines of their team's offence, and the game's just not played the same way when they're not on the ice. Tampa Bay is scoring goals at even strength when Filip Kuba and Paul Ranger are on the ice, Detroit is generating shots on goal with Nick Lidstrom and Henrik Zetterberg out there. Tobias Enstrom and Andrei Markov drive the power plays of their respective teams. Calgary hasn't scored 5-on-4 without Jarome Iginla on the ice.
If I take the above three metrics and weight them equally, it comes up with a pretty solid list of some of the most important offence-first players in the league:
| Defencemen | TM | Forwards | TM | |||||
| 1 | DION PHANEUF | CGY | 1 | RYAN GETZLAF | ANA | |||
| 2 | SERGEI GONCHAR | PIT | 2 | EVGENI MALKIN | PIT | |||
| 3 | TOBIAS ENSTROM | ATL | 3 | JAROME IGINLA | CGY | |||
| 4 | NICKLAS LIDSTROM | DET | 4 | CHRIS KUNITZ | ANA | |||
| 5 | BRUNO GERVAIS | NYI | 5 | JASON SPEZZA | OTT | |||
| 6 | ED JOVANOVSKI | PHX | 6 | ZACH PARISE | N.J | |||
| 7 | DENNIS SEIDENBERG | CAR | 7 | ALEX TANGUAY | CGY | |||
| 8 | PAUL MARTIN | N.J | 8 | PATRICK KANE | CHI | |||
| 9 | SERGEI ZUBOV | DAL | 9 | JERE LEHTINEN | DAL | |||
| 10 | BRIAN POTHIER | WSH | 10 | PAVEL DATSYUK | DET | |||
| 11 | TOM GILBERT | EDM | 11 | TOMAS HOLMSTROM | DET | |||
| 12 | BRIAN CAMPBELL | BUF | 12 | DAYMOND LANGKOW | CGY | |||
| 13 | ANDERS ERIKSSON | CGY | 13 | MARC SAVARD | BOS | |||
| 14 | MAGNUS JOHANSSON | CHI | 14 | COREY PERRY | ANA | |||
| 15 | ZDENO CHARA | BOS | 15 | HENRIK ZETTERBERG | DET | |||
| 16 | CHRIS CAMPOLI | NYI | 16 | SIDNEY CROSBY | PIT | |||
| 17 | MATTHEW CARLE | S.J | 17 | JONATHAN TOEWS | CHI | |||
| 18 | VILLE KOISTINEN | NSH | 18 | MIKE RIBEIRO | DAL | |||
| 19 | KURTIS FOSTER | MIN | 19 | TIM CONNOLLY | BUF | |||
| 20 | LUKAS KRAJICEK | VAN | 20 | MICHAEL NYLANDER | WSH |
Certainly a lot of this has to do with how evenly weighted a team's offence is: Teams like Carolina or Toronto, who score a lot of goals, share the load more than Anaheim, Calgary or Chicago, whose offences could in theory be decimated by one key injury.
Imagine the Blackhawks without, say, Jon Toews, for example.
But what's interesting also is the players not on these lists. Where, for instance, are Ilya Kovalchuk, Alex Ovechkin and Vincent Lecavalier?
Well, Kovalchuk and Lecavalier don't generate a ton of shots, surprisingly, compared to their teammates. And Ovechkin's rates on the power play have been ordinary this season, despite the fact he's playing nearly 80 per cent of the Capitals' man advantage situations.
This post is already horribly long, so I'm going to end here, leaving it up to others to explain what Bruno Gervais is doing here (other than exposing a fatal flaw in my lists).
Labels: Statistics





9 Comments:
I did a quick comparison of your lists with my ratings (at stats.hockeyanalysis.com) and you do a pretty hood job picking out some of the better offensive forwards, the offensive defensemen is a little lacking.
In my system a rating of >1.00 is better than average and <1.00 less than average. Of the players in your list, Tom Gilbert has a 0.93 rating, Jovanovski a 1.00 rating, Foster a 1.03 rating, Carle a 1.04 rating and Martin a 1.04 rating. Everyone else is 1.15 or above. But when it comes to forwards Nylander is 1.10 while everyone else is 1.27 or above.
I think the reason for this is more often than not it is the forwards that drive the offense not the defensemen and defensemen offense is much more influenced by who they are on the ice with. In my rating system I look at both their line mates and their opposition. Should Gilbert get credit for Edmonton's PP or Horcoff and Hemsky?
My top 20 offensive players are:
Douglas Murray, SJ
Erik Cole, CAR
Vernon Fiddler, NSH
Vincent Lecavalier, TB
Mats Sundin, TOR
Pavel Kubina, TOR
Tim Connolly, BUF
Dennis Seidenberg, CAR
Filip Kuba, TB
Martin St. Louis, TB
Jarome Iginla, CAL
Evgeni Malkin, PIT
Mike Ribeiro, DAL
Nikolai Antropov, TOR
Cory Stillman, CAR
Niclas Havelid, ATL
Alex Tanguay, CAL
Dany Heatley, OTT
Vaclav Prospal, TB
Jason Spezza, OTT
Maybe not surprisingly the above lists highlights the flaw in your system that you pointed out. Players on teams with balanced offense don't show up. When I factor in linemates and opposition the Toronto and Carolina players (and Tampa players too) now show up on the top offensive player list.
Wow. You actually found a stat that confirms Kent Huskins plays in the NHL. That's impressive.
Who is Douglas Murray, and why is he suddenly at the top of all of these lists??
I was impressed to see Ponikarovsky so high on the list. He doesn't get much love in TO.
Perhaps I’m being naïve, but it seems to me that both lists are not quite describing the reality of offensive impact. The list above describes, for example, Vernon Fiddler as Nashville's most potent offensive weapon. Is this a factor of sample size? It also seems strange that Sidney Crosby would trail Fiddler (and some of the other players listed) in a metric that measures offensive impact. It seems that we need to find a way to balance shots with shot quality, as well as factor in the difficulty of opposition. Any list that measures the top twenty offensive forwards/players that doesn’t include the league’s leading goal-scorer (Kovalchuk) almost certainly still needs tweaking.
Scott.
I'm missing out on why Getzlaf is the most important offence-first player in the league?
He doesn't appear in your top tens for shots, power play, or even strength goals, then bam! Number 1. How's that?
Scott,
The way mine works is I look at players produce and who makes the players around them better. Now I believe Douglas Murray is an anomaly but lets look at him in more detail. http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/200708players/player0362.php looks at who Murray has played with and against and how many goals for and against were allowed when playing with and against those players. For example, Murray has played 78:18 even strength minutes with Vlasic and when the two of them were on the ice together the team produced 0.766 goals for per 20 minutes. When Vlasic was on the cie but not playing with Murray the Sharks produced at a rate of 0.306 goals/20 minute. In other words, Vlasic produced more offense when with Murray than without.
The same goes for Kyle McLaren (2.642 with, 0.701 without), Marleau (1.905 with, .450 without), Grier (1.648 with, .576 without), Mitchell (2.232 with, 0.356 without), etc. Go down the list (Rissmiller, Thornton, Cheechoo, Bernier, Roenick, Michalek, Brown, Setoguchi, Clowe, Carle, Rivet, etc.) the story is the same.
So what does Douglas Murray do that makes the players around him produce more when he only has 3 assists? Who knows. He is probably pretty lucky but maybe being a reliable defensive defenseman allows his linemates to take chances offensively. He is a +15 so he is doing something right and it probably isn't all luck.
A similar story, though less dramatic can be written about Vernon Fiddler (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/200708players/player0276.php). For other players look at http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/200708players/index.php and click on the players name.
Getzlaf is 11th in two measures and in the low 20s in another; that's the best of all players across the board.
Murray is definitely a sample-size fluke - 16 GF and 1 GA - but performance like that will always be at the top of the league, regardless of how it was achieved. It's also something that's incredibly likely to regress to zero!
At even strength, Murray is San Jose's 8th defenseman. He spent half of last season in the press box. But against the Ducks last Saturday, Murray was out there with Ozolinsh, presumably to keep Sandis out of trouble...
Whenever I read through any of these analyses, I'm always left with the feeling that they're missing some important component. For some reason, baseball's advanced metrics inspire more confidence.
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