Defining bad defence
In general, I'm pretty happy with the Rod Langway look at the best defensive defenders. It's a quick and dirty method for finding which players have played big minutes on defence in a shutdown role and kept pucks out of their own net.
What it's not useful for is finding which defenders have been on the wrong end of the equation.
If finding "good" defence is complicated, then the question of who's played badly is even more so. We all already know Nick Lidstrom and Chris Pronger make it difficult for the opposition to score, but if I asked you who made it the easiest, my guess is there'd be any number of different answers.
What follows are a few different looks at "bad defence" in the NHL. (With some serious help, as per usual, from Behind The Net.)
On the ice for the most 5-on-5 goals against
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | QUAL COMP | GFON | GAON | |
| 1 | PAUL RANGER | D | T.B | 58 | 0.12 | 61 | 70 |
| 2 | ILYA KOVALCHUK | RW | ATL | 58 | 0.05 | 44 | 60 |
| 3 | LUBOMIR VISNOVSKY | D | L.A | 62 | -0.05 | 43 | 60 |
| 4 | MARTIN ST. LOUIS | RW | T.B | 59 | 0.11 | 63 | 60 |
| 5 | BRAD RICHARDS | C | T.B | 59 | 0.06 | 35 | 58 |
| 6 | VINCENT LECAVALIER | C | T.B | 59 | 0.14 | 62 | 58 |
| 7 | FILIP KUBA | D | T.B | 58 | 0.13 | 51 | 58 |
| 8 | VACLAV PROSPAL | LW | T.B | 59 | 0.13 | 52 | 54 |
| 9 | BRIAN CAMPBELL | D | BUF | 59 | 0.00 | 53 | 54 |
| 10 | STEVE STAIOS | D | EDM | 61 | 0.07 | 36 | 54 |
| 11 | WADE REDDEN | D | OTT | 60 | 0.01 | 64 | 53 |
| 12 | TODD WHITE | C | ATL | 61 | 0.06 | 38 | 51 |
| 13 | ANZE KOPITAR | C | L.A | 62 | 0.03 | 35 | 51 |
| 14 | ERIC STAAL | C | CAR | 62 | 0.05 | 49 | 51 |
| 15 | MIKE GREEN | D | WSH | 60 | 0.04 | 49 | 51 |
| 16 | JACK JOHNSON | D | L.A | 62 | 0.05 | 39 | 51 |
| 17 | TOMAS KABERLE | D | TOR | 61 | 0.05 | 44 | 51 |
| 18 | NICLAS HAVELID | D | ATL | 60 | 0.10 | 50 | 50 |
| 19 | BRAD STUART | D | L.A | 61 | -0.08 | 34 | 49 |
| 20 | ALEXANDER OVECHKIN | LW | WSH | 60 | 0.06 | 59 | 49 |
That there is as basic as it gets. Bad defence, in essence, as being out there for a lot of goals against.
This, of course, doesn't take into account ice time, so we see some big-time minute munchers on bad teams way up the list. Tampa's Big Three are taking up prime real estate, and young Mr. Ranger is running away with the lead.
No trophy for that one.
Let's bring ice time in here:
5-on-5 goals against per 60 minutes
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | TOI/60 | QUAL COMP | GF/60 | GA/60 | |
| 1 | MICHAEL NYLANDER | C | WSH | 40 | 13.38 | 0.02 | 2.47 | 4.37 |
| 2 | ILYA KOVALCHUK | RW | ATL | 58 | 14.67 | 0.05 | 3.10 | 4.23 |
| 3 | RYAN SMYTH | LW | COL | 39 | 15.16 | 0.03 | 2.94 | 3.86 |
| 4 | TODD WHITE | C | ATL | 61 | 13.16 | 0.06 | 2.84 | 3.81 |
| 5 | ALEXANDER SEMIN | LW | WSH | 41 | 11.93 | -0.02 | 2.94 | 3.80 |
| 6 | JOE SAKIC | C | COL | 24 | 13.63 | 0.06 | 2.57 | 3.67 |
| 7 | LUBOMIR VISNOVSKY | D | L.A | 62 | 15.95 | -0.05 | 2.61 | 3.64 |
| 8 | BRAD RICHARDS | C | T.B | 59 | 16.24 | 0.06 | 2.19 | 3.63 |
| 9 | PAUL RANGER | D | T.B | 58 | 19.99 | 0.12 | 3.16 | 3.62 |
| 10 | SIMON GAGNE | LW | PHI | 25 | 11.92 | -0.03 | 2.42 | 3.62 |
| 11 | PATRICK O'SULLIVAN | RW | L.A | 62 | 13.01 | 0.03 | 2.60 | 3.57 |
| 12 | VINCENT LECAVALIER | C | T.B | 59 | 16.61 | 0.14 | 3.80 | 3.55 |
| 13 | MICHAL HANDZUS | C | L.A | 62 | 11.88 | 0.08 | 1.87 | 3.50 |
| 14 | DANIEL BRIERE | C | PHI | 60 | 13.37 | -0.02 | 2.02 | 3.44 |
| 15 | ANZE KOPITAR | C | L.A | 62 | 14.40 | 0.03 | 2.35 | 3.43 |
| 16 | ROBERT BLAKE | D | L.A | 53 | 14.53 | 0.03 | 2.34 | 3.43 |
| 17 | MARTIN ST. LOUIS | RW | T.B | 59 | 17.86 | 0.11 | 3.59 | 3.42 |
| 18 | FILIP KUBA | D | T.B | 58 | 17.70 | 0.13 | 2.98 | 3.39 |
| 19 | VACLAV PROSPAL | LW | T.B | 59 | 16.38 | 0.13 | 3.23 | 3.35 |
| 20 | JIRI TLUSTY | LW | TOR | 37 | 10.19 | 0.01 | 1.59 | 3.34 |
More big, ugly numbers, and more Lightning in the parade.
There are some surprising members here, including Burnaby Joe, Todd White, Vinny Lecavalier and Michal Handzus, but mostly what we're still seeing here is players from teams that have had either poor goaltending or poor team defence.
There's also the matter of strength of competition, which is why the Tampa fellows are all getting hammered.
But I'll add that in next. First up, let's compare players to their own teammates' performance:
Difference between 5-on-5 goals against on and off ice
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | QUAL COMP | GA/60 | GAOFF/60 | GAA dif | |
| 1 | MICHAEL NYLANDER | C | WSH | 40 | 0.02 | 4.37 | 2.05 | 2.32 |
| 2 | SIMON GAGNE | LW | PHI | 25 | -0.03 | 3.62 | 1.48 | 2.14 |
| 3 | ILYA KOVALCHUK | RW | ATL | 58 | 0.05 | 4.23 | 2.27 | 1.96 |
| 4 | RYAN SMYTH | LW | COL | 39 | 0.03 | 3.86 | 2.22 | 1.64 |
| 5 | DANIEL BRIERE | C | PHI | 60 | -0.02 | 3.44 | 1.98 | 1.46 |
| 6 | TODD WHITE | C | ATL | 61 | 0.06 | 3.81 | 2.38 | 1.43 |
| 7 | SEAN AVERY | C | NYR | 36 | 0.06 | 2.66 | 1.26 | 1.40 |
| 8 | KEITH YANDLE | D | PHX | 26 | -0.10 | 3.22 | 1.86 | 1.36 |
| 9 | JAROSLAV SPACEK | D | BUF | 47 | 0.01 | 3.20 | 1.85 | 1.35 |
| 10 | SCOTT NIEDERMAYER | D | ANA | 29 | 0.11 | 2.42 | 1.12 | 1.30 |
| 11 | ALEXANDER SEMIN | LW | WSH | 41 | -0.02 | 3.80 | 2.53 | 1.27 |
| 12 | JOE SAKIC | C | COL | 24 | 0.06 | 3.67 | 2.41 | 1.26 |
| 13 | SANDIS OZOLINSH | D | S.J | 38 | -0.10 | 2.97 | 1.73 | 1.24 |
| 14 | BRIAN CAMPBELL | D | BUF | 59 | 0.00 | 3.19 | 1.95 | 1.24 |
| 15 | MIKE COMRIE | C | NYI | 59 | 0.04 | 3.28 | 2.06 | 1.22 |
| 16 | LUKAS KRAJICEK | D | VAN | 39 | -0.12 | 2.86 | 1.69 | 1.17 |
| 17 | WADE REDDEN | D | OTT | 60 | 0.01 | 3.27 | 2.12 | 1.15 |
| 18 | NICLAS WALLIN | D | CAR | 46 | -0.03 | 3.22 | 2.08 | 1.14 |
| 19 | PHIL KESSEL | LW | BOS | 59 | -0.00 | 2.89 | 1.75 | 1.14 |
| 20 | PAUL RANGER | D | T.B | 58 | 0.12 | 3.62 | 2.55 | 1.07 |
Some more new names at the party, and a few guys — like Yandle, Ozolinsh and Krajicek — who are getting beat badly during easy minutes.
Then again, we see someone like Scott Niedermayer show up, mainly due to the fact he's carrying the mail when it comes to tough minutes (he may also be a tad rusty from, you know, sitting on his tuchis for a while).
Sakic? A 38-year-old offensive, smallish centre who was playing hurt and filling tough minutes on a team with some goaltending woes? And his linemates were Andrew Brunette and Ryan Smyth/Wojtek Wolski?
Okay, let's factor the quality of competition numbers in here, weight it against the GAA dif numbers, and see what's left:
| NAME | POS | TM | QUAL COMP | GAA dif | GAA dif rank | QUAL COMP rank | |
| 1 | LUKAS KRAJICEK | D | VAN | -0.12 | 1.17 | 16 | 12 |
| 2 | KEITH YANDLE | D | PHX | -0.10 | 1.36 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | SANDIS OZOLINSH | D | S.J | -0.10 | 1.24 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | JOHN-MICHAEL LILES | D | COL | -0.12 | 0.75 | 51 | 12 |
| 5 | RHETT WARRENER | D | CGY | -0.08 | 0.82 | 42 | 35 |
| 6 | SEAN HILL | D | MIN | -0.08 | 0.81 | 44 | 35 |
| 7 | AARON MILLER | D | VAN | -0.08 | 0.70 | 66 | 35 |
| 8 | LUBOMIR VISNOVSKY | D | L.A | -0.05 | 0.94 | 30 | 79 |
| 9 | BRENDAN MORRISON | C | VAN | -0.05 | 0.92 | 32 | 79 |
| 10 | ANDREI ZYUZIN | D | CHI | -0.08 | 0.62 | 80 | 35 |
| 11 | DUVIE WESTCOTT | D | CBJ | -0.16 | 0.48 | 118 | 3 |
| 12 | SIMON GAGNE | LW | PHI | -0.03 | 2.14 | 2 | 122 |
| 13 | MILAN LUCIC | LW | BOS | -0.07 | 0.64 | 75 | 50 |
| 14 | NICLAS WALLIN | D | CAR | -0.03 | 1.14 | 18 | 122 |
| 15 | MARKUS NASLUND | LW | VAN | -0.05 | 0.72 | 61 | 79 |
| 16 | FRED MEYER IV | D | NYI | -0.07 | 0.58 | 90 | 50 |
| 17 | BRYAN BERARD | D | NYI | -0.07 | 0.57 | 94 | 50 |
| 18 | ANDERS ERIKSSON | D | CGY | -0.03 | 1.04 | 23 | 122 |
| 19 | CAM BARKER | D | CHI | -0.04 | 0.81 | 44 | 102 |
| 20 | ANDREJ SEKERA | D | BUF | -0.06 | 0.58 | 90 | 66 |
| 21 | DANIEL BRIERE | C | PHI | -0.02 | 1.46 | 5 | 152 |
| 22 | VITALY VISHNEVSKI | D | N.J | -0.04 | 0.72 | 58 | 102 |
| 23 | CHRIS KUNITZ | LW | ANA | -0.03 | 0.85 | 39 | 122 |
| 24 | MATT JONES | D | PHX | -0.05 | 0.60 | 83 | 79 |
| 25 | ALEXANDER SEMIN | LW | WSH | -0.02 | 1.27 | 11 | 152 |
| 26 | SCOTT WALKER | RW | CAR | -0.04 | 0.70 | 62 | 102 |
| 27 | MAXIM AFINOGENOV | RW | BUF | -0.04 | 0.70 | 62 | 102 |
| 28 | STEVE WAGNER | D | STL | -0.04 | 0.68 | 70 | 102 |
| 29 | MIKE CAMMALLERI | C | L.A | -0.06 | 0.47 | 121 | 66 |
| 30 | JEREMY ROENICK | C | S.J | -0.03 | 0.67 | 71 | 122 |
| 31 | PETER SCHAEFER | LW | BOS | -0.07 | 0.38 | 143 | 50 |
| 32 | BRAD STUART | D | L.A | -0.08 | 0.31 | 159 | 35 |
| 33 | MARC-ANDRE BERGERON | D | NYI | -0.06 | 0.42 | 129 | 66 |
| 34 | PATRICK MARLEAU | C | S.J | -0.01 | 1.06 | 22 | 178 |
| 35 | STEVE DOWNIE | RW | PHI | -0.06 | 0.39 | 139 | 66 |
| 36 | SHEA WEBER | D | NSH | -0.02 | 0.73 | 57 | 152 |
| 37 | TODD BERTUZZI | LW | ANA | -0.03 | 0.59 | 87 | 122 |
| 38 | MARTIN SKOULA | D | MIN | -0.02 | 0.72 | 58 | 152 |
| 39 | TOM PREISSING | D | L.A | -0.05 | 0.41 | 132 | 79 |
| 40 | BRIAN CAMPBELL | D | BUF | 0.00 | 1.24 | 14 | 200 |
Essentially, this is a list of players whose coaches keep them away from tough minutes, but who still manage to somehow have more goals scored against than when they're on the bench.
It relies heavily (probably too heavily) on the quality of competition numbers, giving a free pass to anyone who plays remotely difficult minutes, but maybe that's the point. One would assume that a coach knows his team's weaknesses as well as anyone, and anyone linematching would therefore hide those players.
I'm surprised to see a few players on here (Weber, for one), but there are a lot of offence-first type defenders who one would expect to see on there. And quality of teammates could still be an issue.
Still, I'd take this over plus-minus.
And I'd be curious to see what others can come up with.
.
Labels: Statistics





11 Comments:
I don't have them sorted by worst defensive players (though I probably should do that) but I have player rankings at stats.hockeyanalysis.com. Click on the division links under Player Rankings for offense, defense and overall rating for every player in the NHL that has play a significant number of minutes. Most of the players on your list do poorly on my rating scheme but a few exceptions exist. For mine a rating over 1.0 is better than average and a rating under 1.0 is below average. Kunitz is on your list but received a 1.01 rating on my list.
The formula I use is based on the quality of the players linemates and the individual players he plays against while he is on the ice. If a teammate performs better when the player is on the ice that is a 'plus' for the player. Conversely if teammates perform worse when they are on the ice with the player then that is a 'minus' for the player. A similar process is done for the individual opponents he plays against.
The results end up being fairly close to yours but factors in one more level of detail.
I just gotta ask: What are "easy minutes"? Are they 60 seconds long like other minutes?
Isn't the point of hockey to score more than you allow?
Then couldn't we just stop at the ratio of GF/60 v GA/60?
That takes into account GF v GA and factors in icetime. All easily countable.
The Quality of Competition thing has become a bit of a meme.
That's a lot of work to determine that Sandis Ozolinsh is poor defensively...
Kidding aside, nice analysis, James. It's great to see it broken down like this, instead of just a final list, so we can get an idea of how each factor affects players' results.
I just gotta ask: What are "easy minutes"? Are they 60 seconds long like other minutes?
There's a difference between playing against Jarome Iginla or Sidney Crosby all night rather than, say, David Moss and Maxime Tablot. Lidstrom does the former and Christoph Shubert does the latter. Shubert, therefore, plays "easier" minutes.
Christoph Shubert is no worse than Antonio Volsenkov.
Who is Antonio Volsenkov? Maybe the Leafs should try to pick him up.
Nice work, James, although I think you're unnecessarily limiting it at the end.
It relies heavily (probably too heavily) on the quality of competition numbers, giving a free pass to anyone who plays remotely difficult minutes, but maybe that's the point.
Maybe that's your point, but I don't see the logic in simply letting all players who are above the water-line in terms of QUALCOMP completely off the hook. Some of those guys are getting eaten alive.
One would assume that a coach knows his team's weaknesses as well as anyone, and anyone linematching would therefore hide those players.
Well, he would hide them unless they're Tampa's guys and he rolls them out there against anybody. Brad Richards for example faces a slightly softer QUALCOMP (+0.06) than either Lecavalier (+0.14) or St. Louis (+0.11) yet has the worst defensive record of the three.
More importantly, those latter two make up for their poor defence by trading goals when they're out there. Both are + players (VL +62/-58; MSL +63/-60) whereas Richards is +35/-58 for an horrendous differential of -1.44/60. With his exorbitant ice time it follows that he has the worst minus in the entire NHL.
Just looking at the guys on your second list, the worst such diffentials on a per-60 basis are Nylander (-1.90/60), Tlusty (-1.75), Handzus (-1.63), B.Richards (-1.44), Briere (-1.42).
While most guys on the list are in the neighbourhood of -1/60, an exception can be found in the group of other Tampa players, of whom VL and MSL are the only two net plusses and Prospal and Ranger are at least close to break-even. No wonder it's Richards who has been put on the trading block. Caveat emptor.
Don't be too surprised to see Shea Weber in there. When he was hurt earlier this season and came back in November, he was terrible for about 15 games until a second injury stint and recovery right around the New Year. Since then, he's been more of the player people expected.
During that first run, he was even getting outscored in his power play time, having been on the ice for 4 shorties against, and only three PP goals scored.
Have you thought about using a ratio for on ice vs off ice ga/60 instead of a difference? This would penalize a skater even less for being on a team with a poor team defence. It's a little less intuitive but scales a player performance to his team performance.
Shouldn't something about team SV% be included? A guy who plays infront of a .890 goalie is gonna have worse numbers than a guy who plays infront of a .925 goalie.
I know, I know, players affect the shot quality, but I'm not sure that makes enough of a difference that one should ignore the impact of the goalie behind the players.
The goals against on/off metric will take that into account; I'm not looking at just goals against, but how the team's goals against changes with certain players on the ice.
Look at how many Canucks are on the final list; how can goaltending be a factor for them?
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