The 2008 draft lottery
The draft lottery goes at 8 p.m. tonight on TSN, and I've provided a run through of how the process works previously.
Here's a look at the chances teams have to "win" the thing this time around:
|1. Tampa Bay||25.00%|
|2. Los Angeles||18.80%|
|4. St. Louis||10.70%|
|5. NY Islanders||8.10%|
|9. Nashville (from Florida)||2.70%|
|12. Anaheim (from Edmonton)||1.10%|
Now, if any team below the top five wins the lottery, Tampa Bay would retain the No. 1 overall pick, which means the Lightning have roughly a 50/50 chance at picking first in Ottawa in June.
TSN's Bob McKenzie had a must-read look at how what's happened in the past doesn't really jive with the fact the top two teams should, in theory, win the majority of these things:
So do this math. Tampa, at 30th, has a 48 per cent chance of holding onto the No. 1 pick. The Los Angles Kings, at 29th, have an almost 19 per cent chance of winning the lottery. That means there's a better than 67 per cent chance either the Lightning or Kings will be picking first overall in this year's draft.Of course, this has no bearing on tonight's draw. But do any probability experts out there want to take a stab at the chances that the top two teams have won just three of these draws previously?
Except we know from history that in 12 lotteries, the last place team has picked first only three times and the second last place team has never, not once, jumped up to pick first. I'm no math major but nine times in 12 years, that's 75 per cent.
Hard to believe.