Team Canada in the shootout
Seems like a good time to post this given Canada narrowly won out in a shootout tonight over Switzerland. Here's what coach Mike Babcock had to say to Duhatschek about his strategy in picking shooters:
"It was really complicated," said Babcock. "We had all the numbers down. Sid was the best, Toews was second and Getzlaf was third. We went in order. Then we said on the bench, ‘Do we go with (Rick) Nash because he's fourth or do we go back to the guy who scores every time?' We just thought he'd had a look at him once; and he'd get him the second time."Which obviously makes one wonder: What are those numbers?
So, here's a look at the all-time shootout records of all 20 Canadian skaters.
| Players | Teams | Goals | Shots | Pct | |
| 1 | Crosby, Sidney | PIT | 18 | 46 | 39.1% |
| 2 | Nash, Rick | CBJ | 16 | 45 | 35.6% |
| 3 | Getzlaf, Ryan | ANA | 15 | 42 | 35.7% |
| 4 | Toews, Jonathan | CHI | 13 | 24 | 54.2% |
| 5 | Perry, Corey | ANA | 11 | 33 | 33.3% |
| 6 | Bergeron, Patrice | BOS | 11 | 41 | 26.8% |
| 7 | Richards, Mike | PHI | 10 | 30 | 33.3% |
| 8 | Marleau, Patrick | SJ | 7 | 23 | 30.4% |
| 9 | Iginla, Jarome | CGY | 7 | 26 | 26.9% |
| 10 | Boyle, Dan | SJ | 4 | 16 | 25.0% |
| 11 | Heatley, Dany | SJ | 4 | 24 | 16.7% |
| 12 | Morrow, Brenden | DAL | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 13 | Doughty, Drew | LA | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 14 | Thornton, Joe | SJ | 2 | 9 | 22.2% |
| 15 | Staal, Eric | CAR | 2 | 12 | 16.7% |
| 16 | Seabrook, Brent | CHI | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 17 | Niedermayer, Scott | ANA | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 18 | Pronger, Chris | ANA | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 19 | Weber, Shea | NSH | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 20 | Keith, Duncan | CHI | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
Toews, in other words, appears to have the best overall percentage among regular shooters, but looking at the numbers for this season, Crosby has been hot (six for eight). This table, however, explains why they went with Getzlaf in the third spot, and why Nash would have been No. 4 had Crosby not gone for a second go-round.
Expect those four to be taking all the shots if there's another one later on in the tournament.
c.
Labels: 2010 Olympics, Team Canada
by James Mirtle @ 2:28 AM
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8 comments
8 Comments:
How about the Ruskies going with Morozov in the shootout?
Don't the stats point to Brent Seabrook as the obvious #1? :)
I would say I'm surprised Morrow has only been used 4 times, but Dallas has been one of the best shootout teams post-lockout from what I can remember, so obviously they know what they're doing there.
Actually, now with Getzlaf's miss, Nash has a higher percentage, so he should get the call next time.
That was an unbelievable game. That whole team is stacked with talent. I don't think that it took statistics to know you go with your best player. Crosby stands alone on that team.
This whole tournament is starting to get intense, and I think that looking at it from an American perspective, this Sunday might get ugly.
I just started to keep track on this on my blog, feel free to give me some feedback.
www.blockersave.blogspot.com
I've complied similar numbers for all players in the Olympics with NHL shootout experience, if you're interested:
LINK
JM - don't forget regression to the mean! All we've got here are very small samples of their performance, as opposed to a measure of their true talent.
I hope the team's internal ranking of its shooters was based on a lot of breakaways in practice and not exclusively on your table!
From the looks of it, Babcock was looking at the exact same table as I've got here - sample size or not.
Babcock's overthinking then. Toews is probably the best of the group, and even with him, we just don't know yet. The odds of anybody else in the top 10 being better or worse than average is pretty small. Any forward will do, really..
I don't know if this had anything to do with the decision, but Crosby and Toews can beat you in the shootout in a number of different ways. I keeps the goalie a little bit off-balance if you don't have a specific move that you always try to pull.
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