Sunday, February 28, 2010

2010 Olympics: Picking the tournament all-stars

There are a trio of end-of-tournament awards that they hand out in the men's Olympic hockey tournament: One for the MVP, one set of three Directorate Awards for each position and then a media all-star team.

Here's who took home that hardware in 2006, when Sweden won over the Finns:

Media all-stars: Antero Niittymaki, Nicklas Lidstrom, Kimmo Timonen, Teemu Selanne, Saku Koivu and Alex Ovechkin

MVP and top goalie: Niittymaki
Top defenceman: Kenny Jonsson
Top forward: Selanne

There's still one game to go so this may change a bit, but here are my picks for 2010:

Media all-stars: Ryan Miller, Brian Rafalski, Shea Weber, Pavol Demitra, Zach Parise and Jonathan Toews

MVP: Miller if the U.S. wins or a top Canadian forward who makes an impact in the final if they win (Toews, Heatley, Iginla, Crosby and Getzlaf are in the running)

Top goalie: Miller
Top defenceman: Rafalski
Top forward: Could be Parise if he has a big game or one of the aforementioned Canadian forwards

The tournament scoring leaders are all listed here and goaltending leaders are here.
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Friday, February 26, 2010

2010 Olympics: Players in the hunt for medals

Four teams left and two more big games Friday in Vancouver. Here's a team-by-team look at the NHL players in the running for medals:

Anaheim: Getzlaf, Koivu, Niedermayer, Perry, Ryan, Selanne, Whitney
Boston: Bergeron, Chara, Satan, Thomas
Buffalo: Lydman, Miller, Sekera
Calgary: Hagman, Iginla, Kiprusoff
Carolina: Gleason, Pitkanen, Ruutu, Staal
Chicago: Hossa, Kane, Keith, Kopecky, Seabrook, Toews
Colorado: Budaj, Stastny
Columbus: Jurcina, Nash
Dallas: Lehtinen, Morrow
Detroit: Filppula, Rafalski
Edmonton: Visnovsky
Los Angeles: Brown, Doughty, Handzus, Johnson, Quick
Minnesota: Backstrom, Koivu, Miettinen
Montreal: Halak
Nashville: Suter, Weber
New Jersey: Brodeur, Langenbrunner, Parise
NY Rangers: Callahan, Drury, Gaborik, Jokinen
Ottawa: Ruutu
Philadelphia: Pronger, Richards, Timonen
Phoenix: Lepisto
Pittsburgh: Crosby, Fleury, Orpik
San Jose: Boyle, Heatley, Marleau, Pavelski, Thornton
St. Louis: Backes, Johnson
Tampa Bay: Malone, Meszaros, Niittymaki
Toronto: Kessel
Vancouver: Demitra, Kesler, Luongo, Salo

So, in all, 26 NHL teams still have a hope of a player bringing back a medal. Those not in the running are Atlanta, Florida, the Islanders and Washington. The Ducks have the most players still in the running with seven, followed by Chicago with six and L.A. and San Jose with five.  
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Thursday, February 25, 2010

KHL, WADA sign agreement

Today in Vancouver, the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) and the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) signed an agreement declaring the KHL’s intentions to abide by the WADA’s World Anti-Doping Code and the Code's main principles and regulations. In doing so, the KHL becomes the first major, international professional sports league to commit to the tenets of the WADA’s best-in-class anti-doping regulations and measures.

“By establishing this partnership, we are positioning the KHL as a leader among other sports leagues on this issue,” said KHL president Alexander Medvedev. “This agreement further demonstrates, through our commitment to create a drug-free environment for all of our players, the willingness of the KHL to be transparent in its operations.”

One of the KHL’s first steps under this newly signed agreement will be the creation of a player ambassador program as part of “Clear Ice,” the league’s own anti-doping program, featuring such KHL stars as Jaromir Jagr, Alexei Yashin and Sergei Federov. The goal of the ambassador program will be to further educate both fellow players and youth sports participants about the dangers of drug use.
>> KHL release
A positive step, one would think. It'll be interesting if there'll be in-season testing done, which is something WADA has criticized the NHL for not having in the past.
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The past 30 years of Olympic participation

Here's a quick look at how the 12 countries that are in these year's Olympics have fared over the past 30 years at the Games. I included the Soviet Union as Russia but not Czechoslovakia for the Czech Republic and Slovakia:


Country 1980 1984 1988 1992 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Avg
1  Russia   2 1 1 1 4 2 3 4 6 2.7
2  Sweden   3 3 3 5 1 5 5 1 5 3.4
3  Canada   6 4 4 2 2 4 1 7 3.8
4  Finland   4 6 2 7 3 3 6 2 4.1
5  Czech Rep.   5 1 7 3 7 4.6
6  USA  1 7 7 4 8 6 2 8 ? 5.4
7  Belarus   DNQ  7 4 DNQ  9 6.7
8  Slovakia   6 10 13 5 8.5
9  Germany   6 7 9 8 10 11 8.5
10  Switzerland   DNQ  DNQ  8 10 DNQ  DNQ  11 6 8 8.6
11  Norway   11 12 12 9 11 DNQ  DNQ  DNQ  10 10.8
12  Latvia   DNQ  DNQ  DNQ  9 12 12 11.0

This year's tournament will go down as the worst finish ever for Russia, who had never placed lower than fourth since first entering Olympic hockey in 1956. Canada's low point, meanwhile, came in Turin four years ago.

The U.S. has a chance to win gold for the first time since the Miracle on Ice, while Finland and Slovakia have never won gold. (The Slovaks have already earned their best-ever finish given the worst they can now do is fourth.)
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Burke's tears

After Brendan publicly revealed his sexual preference, Brian was flooded with requests to do advocacy work on behalf of gays. He told the groups that while he supported his son, he had other causes: land conservation, blood donation and children's literacy. He didn't want to dilute that work. This, too, changed on that Friday in February. Brendan's causes are Brian's now. He will do a public-service announcement aimed at eliminating the bullying of gay children. And he plans to march in the Toronto Pride Parade. "I'd promised him I would march with him," says Burke, who briefly left the Olympics last Friday to attend a memorial service for Brendan at Miami of Ohio. "He won't be there, but I will."
Another excellent piece from Farber.
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2010 Olympics: The Canada 'bias'

Dan Dunleavy, in Vancouver to cover the Olympics for the Rogers radio network, picks Russia to win the men’s hockey tournament. To use Catriona Le May Doan’s term, it’s a gutsy call, because the Canadian media, generally, are terrified to predict any country but Canada winning hockey gold. They risk being condemned by the xenophobes as twisted, unpatriotic and even seditious. Truth is, Russia, based on its talent up front and its goaltending, should be the favourite.
It's nice to see that the tournament's quarter-finals played out with the most talented teams advancing*, as I think if Russia had won we'd be hearing overly simplistic analysis ad nauseam about how having a few snipers like Ovechkin and Malkin is the path to icing the best team. (Nevermind that this was a team with two "star" calibre defencemen, both of whom are on the downside of their careers.)

The fact is, Canada continues to boast the best depth in this tournament and is a completely reasonable choice as the favourite. Meanwhile, a team that relies on Dmitri Kalinin to play 15 minutes a night on its back end, and which has Evgeni Nabokov - a netminder who has flamed out more than once in the postseason - as its backstop, does not have the advantage in a best-on-best event.

Russia always had too much KHL talent playing key roles and, if its top guns couldn't get things going, they weren't a good enough group defensively or in goal (i.e. Finland) to win games 2-1. 

Given the format, any team on any night can beat another, but based on their talent at every position, Canada is a perfectly reasonable favourite - likely more in 2010 than any other year. This is a country with two former Norris Trophy winners on the blueline and three more players who are favourites to win this year. Six of Canada's defencemen are in the top 11 in scoring among blueliners.

All that said: Given no team has a better than 25- or 30-per-cent chance of winning, any prediction for the Olympics is a shot in the dark, and there's no outright "favourite" worth condemning other picks for.

If there was, it wasn't the Russians, who we have seen this from in the past (the 2005 world junior tournament comes to mind) and who allowed internal politics to decide some of their roster selections.

*- Sweden's tied 2-2 with Slovakia in the quarter-finals as I write this
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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

NBC's Brokaw on Canada


Good stuff.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010

2010 Olympics: Looking at roster depth

Men's Ice Hockey: Canada vs. USA

There have been a lot of great discussions about Team Canada over the past few days, including one I had with Tyler D. on Twitter most of last night. He's defensive of how the team's played so far; I think that, given their talent advantage, they should have been better (even beyond Brodeur).

Part of my argument simply comes back to where I think Canada has a real edge, and that's in its depth, and the best way I could think to illustrate that is below. Here's Canada's roster, sorted into lines based on ice time so far in the tournament (more ice time and you're higher up), along with who I think the other three contenders are based on their play so far.

Canada could very well have to beat all three to win gold:


For.CanadaRussiaSwedenUSA

1CROSBYMALKINBACKSTROMPARISE

2MARLEAUOVECHKINALFREDSSONLANGENBRUN.

3NASHKOVALCHUKZETTERBERGKANE

4HEATLEYDATSYUKH.SEDINSTASTNY

5THORNTONSEMINERIKSSONKESLER

6GETZLAFAFINOGENOVD.SEDINBROWN

7E.STAALRADULOVFRANZENBACKES

8TOEWSZINOVYEVWEINHANDLPAVELSKI

9PERRYZARIPOVFORSBERGDRURY

10IGINLAMOROZOVPAHLSSONRYAN

11M.RICHARDSV.KOZLOVHORNQVISTMALONE

12BERGERONFEDOROVMODINKESSEL

13MORROW

CALLAHAN







Def.CanadaRussiaSwedenUSA

1WEBERGONCHARLIDSTROMSUTER

2KEITHNIKULINOHLUNDRAFALSKI

3NIEDERMAYERA.MARKOVKRONWALLJ.JOHNSON

4BOYLEKORNEYEVTALLINDERORPIK

5DOUGHTYTYUTINMURRAYE.JOHNSON

6PRONGERKALININENSTROMGLEASON

7SEABROOKGREBESHKOVODUYAWHITNEY

8
VOLCHENKOVJOHANSSON

For all of the Big Seven countries, here's a similar chart.


In terms of top-end talent up front, Russia's as impressive as they come with five excellent weapons. From forward No. 7 on, however, Canada has a healthy advantage, with five of their bottom seven forwards serving as captains of their NHL teams. Their top 11 forwards are all essentially point-a-game all-stars, most of whom are in their prime.

The blueline, however, is where I think Canada should have the biggest edge, as its top six are all in the top 11 in scoring among NHL defencemen and log huge minutes. Weber, Keith and Doughty are potential Norris Trophy candidates, while Russia's relying on three KHL blueliners in their top six.

Sweden's depth, meanwhile, measures up better, although both Franzen and Kronwall are coming off injuries (and who knows what you get from Forsberg at this point). The Americans' defence, beyond the top two, should have its hands full with every elite team in the tournament (which they did with Canada given the shot totals).

When Chris Pronger is your No. 6, you should be laughing. (Not crying.)

Of course, goal is a huge piece of the puzzle, and as I said going in, that could very well be Team Canada's trouble spot - despite the big names. Luongo will definitely be tested by Russia, and despite his sterling international record, there are question marks there.

Up front and on defence, however, Canada should have an edge over everyone in the tournament. Maybe not every minute of every game, but more often than not.

As an aside to all that, Gabe Desjardins had a good look at the recent historical record for the contending teams and pegs Canada's chances of winning it all at just 20 per cent. He's definitely right that this is a far more difficult tournament to win than many make it out to be, and a  gold-or-bust mentality is silly, but realistically, this team should be able to at least medal more than half the time.

Nagano was proof of how difficult a tournament formatted like this is to win. Salt Lake City saw the stars align. Turin, meanwhile, was a disaster

A loss in the quarter-finals this time around will mean a sixth-place finish for Canada, meaning that in four Olympic tournaments, they would have one gold, one fourth, one seventh and one sixth. Whether its the pressure or some sort of weakness many are overlooking, that's simply an underperformance for this group.

But if they finish second, third or fourth in Vancouver? That's probably getting closer to where the odds lie. 
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2010 Olympics: Who's getting the big minutes

I've been working on a couple stats packages after the initial games of the Olympic tournament, looking at some of the leaders from all 240 skaters to this point.

Here are the ice time leaders through the round-robin games, separated into forwards and defencemen:

Rk Forwards Team GP G A PTS PIM  +/- M/G
1 THORESEN Norway 3 0 3 3 0 -2 20:30
2 ZUCCARELLO A. Norway 3 0 1 1 2 0 19:51
3 VIKINGSTAD Norway 3 3 0 3 4 -2 19:39
4 DEMITRA Slovakia 3 1 2 3 2 1 19:30
5 HANSEN Norway 3 1 0 1 2 -2 19:01
6 ELIAS Czech Rep. 3 2 2 4 0 0 18:45
7 HOSSA Slovakia 3 2 1 3 2 1 18:38
8 HANDZUS Slovakia 3 1 2 3 0 2 18:37
9 GOC Germany 3 1 1 2 0 -1 18:34
10 GABORIK Slovakia 3 1 0 1 2 1 18:34

Norway's one of the few teams in the tourney to have shortened its bench so far, and that makes sense on some levels given their lack of depth. These players' plus-minus is pretty impressive given this is a team that's been outscored 19-5 after three games.

Slovakia, meanwhile, has to go with its few key offensive stars in big minutes, and they've delivered so far. Handzus, in particular, has impressed me in facing opponent's top lines.

The top Canadian and American forwards (Crosby and Parise), meanwhile, have both only played in the 17 minute range, something that is likely to change now that we're in must-win territory. 

Rk Defencemen Team GP G A PTS PIM  +/- M/G
1 HOLOS Norway 3 0 0 0 2 -3 28:41
2 TRYGG Norway 3 0 0 0 0 -5 25:25
3 STREIT Switzerland 3 0 2 2 0 -1 25:05
4 CHARA Slovakia 3 0 0 0 4 1 23:51
5 SALO Finland 3 0 1 1 2 1 23:47
6 TIMONEN Finland 3 2 0 2 2 1 22:38
7 SEIDENBERG Germany 3 1 0 1 0 0 22:37
8 EHRHOFF Germany 3 0 0 0 4 -1 22:34
9 JAKOBSEN Norway 3 0 1 1 6 -6 22:29
10 WEBER Canada 3 0 3 3 2 1 22:00

More Norwegians logging huge minutes. I don't know a heckuva lot about Holos other than he plays in the Swedish Elitserien (and I put him on my fantasy team), but being only minus-3 while playing roughly half of Norway's lopsided games is impressive.

The others, save for Weber, aren't surprising given their team's lack depth on the blueline and need to ride their few NHL studs. I imagine we'll see a ton of Ehrhoff and Seidenberg against Canada on Tuesday night. Chara will be a huge part of Slovakia playing spoiler, too. 

Kimmo Timonen's really impressed me in the games I've seen for Finland, as he continues to be one of the NHL's more underrated blueliners.
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Bobby Stevenson, Team USA star

Robert Stevenson was charged with attempted murder and five other felony counts. He tried to obtain a passport using the name of a dead baby before jumping bail. He fled to Canada and his wife, who had forgiven him, and his son later joined him.

Robert Stevenson and his son changed their names and lived under assumed identities and the family lived on the lam.

Today, the boy who protected his family’s dark and complicated secret for much of his life is a pivotal part of the U.S. Olympic hockey team that faces Canada.
A story that's been out there for a while, but an incredible one nonetheless.
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Monday, February 22, 2010

Hockey Night in Afghanistan

"I feel like a Canadian stereotype," said Lieutenant (Navy) Neil King, who was wearing a Canada jersey, holding a Canadian flag, and drinking a Tim Hortons coffee while sitting on a yellow utility truck that had a large Canadian flag hung off it.

"Just the atmosphere here. It's always good to see the Canadians take on the Americans," Lt. King said, before - in true Canadian fashion - politely tip-toeing through his prediction of a lopsided affair. "You know they've got a decent team, but not quite to the level of the Canadians. So, I'm expecting, you know, quite a few goals on our side."
My good pal is over in Afghanistan, and he covered a different sort of hockey game on the weekend, this one won 16-2 by the Canadian troops over the Americans. As for the actual game back in Vancouver, they were watching and he said the soldiers weren't all that pleased...

I believe the quote was: "f--- this." 
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2010 Olympics: Who plays who after the prelims

So, the three-game round robin is over for all 12 teams, and everyone moves on. Here are how they're ranked after Sunday's games: 

1. United States
2. Sweden
3. Russia
4. Finland

5. Czech Republic
6. Canada
7. Slovakia
8. Switzerland
9. Belarus
10. Norway
11. Germany
12. Latvia

Next round (Tuesday):
G1: Czech Rep. vs. Latvia, 10 p.m.
G2: Canada vs. Germany, 7:30 p.m.
G3: Slovakia vs. Norway, midnight
G4: Switzerland vs. Belarus, 3 p.m.

Quarter-finals (Wednesday):
Q1. United States vs. Switzerland/Belarus
Q2. Sweden vs. Slovakia/Norway
Q3. Russia vs. Canada/Germany
Q4. Finland vs. Czech Rep./Latvia

Semi-finals (Friday)
Q1 vs. Q4
Q2 vs. Q3

Bronze-medal game (Saturday)
Semi-final losers

Gold-medal game (Sunday)
Semi-final winners


A few observations:
  1. Finishing first has done wonders for the U.S., who will now avoid Canada, Russia and Sweden until playing for gold (should they make it that far). The Americans are the favourites now to come out of that side of the bracket (although we may not have seen the best of the Finns or Czechs yet).

  2. Canada, conversely, has a heckuva road ahead, which is what they've earned after needing a shootout to beat Switzerland and losing to the U.S. The Canadians were the lowest ranked team that finished second in their group, and placing sixth instead of fifth means a date with Russia in the quarter-final instead of Finland.

  3. I'm assuming there won't be any monumental upsets, of course, but that could happen. A win over a contending team by Slovakia or Switzerland would change everything, and when it comes down to one game and given those teams have excellent goaltenders, who knows?
However it shakes out, we're in for some great games this week. And, six days from now, a new gold-medal winner. 
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Sunday, February 21, 2010

What's next at the Olympics


I'll update this after tonight's Sweden-Finland tilt.
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How the Olympic hockey format works

For the curious, here's how the men's hockey format works at the Olympics (courtesy of the IIHF).

I may offer a more extensive runthrough of how this works later today, but in a nutshell, the top four teams after today's games will move on to the top four spots in the quarter-finals. Teams five through 12, meanwhile, will play a "bonus" game, with the winners of that one moving on and the losers going home ranked 9th to 12th.

If, for example, Sweden, Russia, Canada and the U.S. end up as the top four, Finland, the Czechs, Slovaks, etc., will face some of the lowly teams (Latvia, Norway, Germany) that didn't win a game for the right to move on. The No. 1 ranked team will face the winner of the 8th v. 9th game, which looks like it'll be between Switzerland and Belarus, in the quarter-final, while teams ranked No. 2 through 4 will likely get a somewhat difficult opponent in the quarters.

One other twist is the fact that that "bonus" game is played on Tuesday and the quarter-finals on Wednesday, meaning teams without the top four bye will have to play two must-win games back-to-back.  

Things are definitely about to get interesting.
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Saturday, February 20, 2010

Langenbrunner on being Captain America

International hockey's been a bit of a strange road for Jamie Langenbrunner.

Named to the 1998 Olympic team in Nagano at age 22, midway through his second full NHL season, he then wasn't invited back for Salt Lake City in 2002. Nor Turin in 2006.

Twelve years after that first appearance at the Games, he's now the 34-year-old captain of an American team that has 14 members 25 and under.

Langenbrunner's coming off his best season in the NHL last year, a 29-goal, 69-point campaign in which he was also plus-25. He's also emerged as a top defensive player and a leader, as in addition to captaining the Olympic team he wears the 'C' for the Devils.

Langenbrunner's a small-town guy from Minnesota and has a pretty straightforward approach to answering questions. I had the chance to chat with him briefly this year about how he'd approach leading such a young group. 

"You're named captain and you're put in those situations because of the way you do things," Langenbrunner said. "If you go out and try and change who you are and the way you prepare, you're not being the person who you're supposed to be. I'm going to keep playing the way I always have."

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Friday, February 19, 2010

Team Canada in the shootout

Seems like a good time to post this given Canada narrowly won out in a shootout tonight over Switzerland. Here's what coach Mike Babcock had to say to Duhatschek about his strategy in picking shooters:
"It was really complicated," said Babcock. "We had all the numbers down. Sid was the best, Toews was second and Getzlaf was third. We went in order. Then we said on the bench, ‘Do we go with (Rick) Nash because he's fourth or do we go back to the guy who scores every time?' We just thought he'd had a look at him once; and he'd get him the second time."
Which obviously makes one wonder: What are those numbers?

So, here's a look at the all-time shootout records of all 20 Canadian skaters.


Players   Teams  Goals    Shots   Pct
1 Crosby, Sidney   PIT  18 46 39.1%
2 Nash, Rick   CBJ  16 45 35.6%
3 Getzlaf, Ryan   ANA  15 42 35.7%
4 Toews, Jonathan   CHI  13 24 54.2%
5 Perry, Corey   ANA  11 33 33.3%
6 Bergeron, Patrice   BOS  11 41 26.8%
7 Richards, Mike   PHI  10 30 33.3%
8 Marleau, Patrick   SJ 7 23 30.4%
9 Iginla, Jarome   CGY  7 26 26.9%
10 Boyle, Dan   SJ 4 16 25.0%
11 Heatley, Dany   SJ 4 24 16.7%
12 Morrow, Brenden   DAL  2 4 50.0%
13 Doughty, Drew   LA 2 5 40.0%
14 Thornton, Joe   SJ 2 9 22.2%
15 Staal, Eric   CAR  2 12 16.7%
16 Seabrook, Brent   CHI  1 1 100.0%
17 Niedermayer, Scott   ANA  0 2 0.0%
18 Pronger, Chris   ANA  0 3 0.0%
19 Weber, Shea   NSH  0 1 0.0%
20 Keith, Duncan  CHI  0 0 0.0%

Toews, in other words, appears to have the best overall percentage among regular shooters, but looking at the numbers for this season, Crosby has been hot (six for eight). This table, however, explains why they went with Getzlaf in the third spot, and why Nash would have been No. 4 had Crosby not gone for a second go-round.

Expect those four to be taking all the shots if there's another one later on in the tournament.
c.

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Thursday, February 18, 2010

Comparing Team Canadas: 2006 to 2010

I've been asked a lot about Team Canada leading into these Olympics, and for the most part, my responses have been pretty positive. This is, after all, a remarkably different team than the one that finished seventh and was essentially a disaster in Turin four years ago.

Here's a comparison of those teams:

Returning players
Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Chris Pronger, Dany Heatley, Jarome Iginla, Rick Nash, Joe Thornton

Missed 2006 due to injury but on 2010 team
Scott Niedermayer

2010 newcomers
Marc-Andre Fleury, Duncan Keith, Shea Weber, Brent Seabrook, Drew Doughty, Dan Boyle, Brenden Morrow, Patrick Marleau, Jonathan Toews, Mike Richards, Eric Staal, Corey Perry, Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Getzlaf, Sidney Crosby

In all, 15 of the 2010 team's 20 skaters are newcomers (if you include Niedermayer). Nearly half (seven) of those came out of the world junior class of 2005, as stacked a team as we've seen in that tournament: Seabrook, Weber, Bergeron, Crosby, Getzlaf, Perry and Richards.

Fleury played for the 2003 and 2004 teams, Doughty in 2008, Toews in 2006 and 2007. Morrow played in the 1999 tourney. Incredibly, Keith and Staal didn't play at all at the world juniors. Neither did Marleau or Boyle, who made his international debut in 2005 with the world championship team at age 28.

Canada won gold in the juniors from 2005 to 2009, five straight times, and a lot of their new recruits (nine) came from those tournaments. The international success is there, albeit at a different level, and that alone leads me to believe this team will have more success than the group in Turin.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Vancouver 2010
A Norwegian perspective on losing to Canada

And it was worse.

Iginla increased to six after a beautiful Canadian attack, before Corey Perry rose to 7-0. Iginla was probably also the eighth, he steered past the light Støen - which can not be credited to a very successful innhopp.

Then it was far from set in Canada's parlor any longer - it was almost as the roof lifted up in the cries for more slaughter of the Norwegians.

Thanks to Andy from Norway for passing along the link.
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A proposal for Olympic hockey reform

I like Olympic hockey as much as the next guy, but what I can't stand is 8-0 games between Canada and Norway that feature goaltenders that have day jobs going up against $130-million of NHL talent.

All the while, all I can think about is how it's too bad the Olympics don't have Canada play all of its five or six games against other contenders. As it stands now, we may not even see Canada-Russia, which is what we've waited four years for.

Here's my proposal for how to change the tournament (originally posted on Twitter in various rants earlier today):

Top six ranked countries should play five games in Group A: 
Russia, Canada, Sweden, Finland, U.S., Czech

Bottom six play in Group B for two quarter-final berths: 
Switzerland, Belarus, Slovakia, Latvia, Norway, Germany

The initial group stage suddenly has high stakes against great opponents: Beat good teams, you get to face a Group B team in sudden death and have a much higher chance of moving on. Lose in the early going, and you've got a very tough opponent in the quarter-final.

For Group B, it's win and you move on; otherwise, you're toast after five games. 

Canada, Russia, Sweden, etc., should never face Italy, Norway, etc., unless those teams earn the game with a few wins. It really weakens the entire tournament to waste round-robin games on lopsided opponents – and there's zero reason why they can't reform the format.

It's two weeks of what should be the best hockey we see in a four-year period. Right now, it's only that for a couple of the games and that's just too bad.
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My Olympic fantasy hockey picks

The boys at The Pensblog and a site called Rinkotology are running a pretty neat hockey pool for the men's Olympic hockey tournament that I decided to toss an entry in for.

The great twist in this one is that you have to pick 12 players and one from each country, meaning you can't enter without taking players from tournament minnows like Belarus, Norway, Latvia, Switzerland and Germany. Of the 12 players, eight have to be forwards, three defencemen and one a goaltender.

So, even if you like Martin Brodeur as your netminder, that's fine, but you can't take another goalie and you can't take another Canadian. Which makes things infinitely more difficult.

In any event, here's the team I came up with, one that is in 541st place out of 868 teams after the first two games. Still, I like my chances.

Forwards
  1. Russia: Alex Ovechkin
  2. Canada: Dany Heatley
  3. U.S.: Zach Parise
  4. Slovakia: Marian Gaborik
  5. Finland: Mikko Koivu
  6. Czech Rep.: Tomas Plekanec
  7. Belarus: Sergei Kostitsyn
  8. Latvia: Janis Sprukts
Defencemen
  1. Switzerland: Mark Streit
  2. Germany: Christian Ehrhoff
  3. Norway: Jonas Holos
Goaltender
  1. Sweden: Henrik Lundqvist
My strategy was to take a goaltender who I know will start and likely do well, use defencemen picks on countries which don't have a lot of firepower and then try and draft goal scorers with my remaining picks.

The pool's full rules are available here. I picked Ovechkin as my captain and Heatley and Parise as assistants because I figured those three have a decent chance to finish as the tournament's top three goal scorers, but really, who knows?

So, if you see me rooting for Sprukts on Twitter, you know why.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

My 2010 Olympics prediction


Gold: Canada
Silver: Sweden
Bronze: Russia

This year seemingly more than in the past, Team Canada's roster has a definite edge talent-wise over the other teams, and I can't see any reason to not predict a win at home. As much as the Russians have been trumped up in the lead up and as much as I think Alex Ovechkin will make an impact here, there are holes in that roster (on the blueline and on the checking lines) and I think the push to have so many KHLers filling key roles will hurt them in the end.

If there's a worry for Canada, it's in goal, where several other countries have hotter netminders. That said, my money's on Martin Brodeur to provide good enough goaltending for Crosby and Co. to take care of the rest.

As for the dark horse, I think the Americans definitely have a chance to medal. 

Should be interesting.
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Monday, February 15, 2010

Comparing this season to last: Goal scoring

The Olympics are taking over with games set to start Tuesday, but I'll be doing a couple stats items on the NHL season to this point over at Globe on Hockey the next two weeks. Might also blog here on the Games.

The latest stats package looks at which teams are up and which are down when it comes to offensive production this season. Calgary, Boston and Detroit are all way down.
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Sunday, February 14, 2010

A closer look at the NHL's attendance

Here's a comparison of last season's attendance with how teams are doing this year. Overall, the average NHL team is down 600 fans per game.
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Saturday, February 13, 2010

With heavy heart, Burke back to work

"It's not supposed to be this way. Your kids are supposed to bury you. It was compounded by the fact that Brendan was a special kid. Not too many 21-year-olds have blazed a trail like that. He had a huge heart, had a great future in it, and I promised that his message will live on.

"The trail-blazing step Brendan took is he went very public with the fact that he's gay and that that was acceptable in the hockey world, and I think that's a wall that needs to be broken down. That's what I pledged to keep working towards, is that this game should be open to everybody, and everyone should be open to play this game. I think that was Brendan's message, and it took a lot of courage."

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Wednesday, February 10, 2010

On HNIC Radio

I was on Hockey Night in Canada's radio show with Jeff Marek on Tuesday night talking Leafs, Sharks and Red Wings. You can have a listen here.
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The PPP Mail Bag

I've started answering Leafs-related questions about every two weeks for my pals at Pension Plan Puppets in what they're calling the Mirtle Mailbag. Edition No. 1 is up and going, so feel free to join the discussion.
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The Playoff Push

Playoff Push has a new home and I'm keeping it updated at least once a week (more once we get closer to the postseason, likely).

Tally so far has Washington in the playoffs and Edmonton out, but everyone else is still in the mix.
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Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Sharks 3, Leafs 2

Up against a San Jose Sharks team loaded with eight Olympians and that had only lost three games in regulation since mid-December, the Leafs outhit, outshot and, for the most part, outhustled one of the best teams in the league.

What they couldn’t do was outscore them.

– Feb. 8, The Globe and Mail

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Monday, February 08, 2010

Kessel silent on stick swap

After going through a recent skid in which he had only two goals and 10 points in 20 games, Leafs sniper Phil Kessel opted for a change in the stick department – and it appears to be working.

Kessel went from a Bauer X:60 stick to one made by Easton, believed to be an S19, for the game Jan. 29 against the Devils, and has scored five goals and eight points in his past four games.

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Leafs rally behind GM after tragedy

Just like his father, Brendan was a gifted academic, a dean's list student at Miami who planned to study law and potentially enter politics. And, as his brother Patrick told the Boston Herald, being gay was far from what defined him.

“If he had been born straight, he would have come up with another cause to fight for, and he would have been front and centre in that one, too,” said Patrick, a scout with the Philadelphia Flyers.

As it is, Burke's story stands out as one of acceptance – from a man known for advocating for “truculence” in hockey and in a game with barriers that still need to be broken down.

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Sunday, February 07, 2010

Leafs win one for Burke

Despite the win, the mood from Leafs players and coach Ron Wilson was understandably far from celebratory after the game.

“It’s been hard,” Wilson said of the 24 hours since learning of Burke’s death. “I’ve known Brendan almost since the day he was born and he was a special kid. It’s just the worst thing that any parent can possibly imagine.

“It’s been so hard, you’re trying to prepare for a game… it’s just horrific. I couldn’t possibly imagine the grief you would feel.”

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The House that Lou Built

“There was a thought process of what this building could do for Newark and hopefully what Newark could do for the building, with reference to mass transportation and all of the areas that it offers [access to],” Devils president and general manager Lou Lamoriello said.

“We’re trying to rejuvenate it.”

— Feb. 5, The Globe and Mail

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Back on this blog

It's been a while, but I'm going to be posting my work from elsewhere on this site, letting people know about recent articles or radio/TV appearances. You can also follow me on Twitter for similar updates.

All of my blogging archives from October, 2008, to January, 2010, will be kept active at From The Rink. Any new work will appear at globesports.com and Globe on Hockey.
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