Friday, February 19, 2010

Team Canada in the shootout

Seems like a good time to post this given Canada narrowly won out in a shootout tonight over Switzerland. Here's what coach Mike Babcock had to say to Duhatschek about his strategy in picking shooters:
"It was really complicated," said Babcock. "We had all the numbers down. Sid was the best, Toews was second and Getzlaf was third. We went in order. Then we said on the bench, ‘Do we go with (Rick) Nash because he's fourth or do we go back to the guy who scores every time?' We just thought he'd had a look at him once; and he'd get him the second time."
Which obviously makes one wonder: What are those numbers?

So, here's a look at the all-time shootout records of all 20 Canadian skaters.

Players   Teams  Goals    Shots   Pct
1 Crosby, Sidney   PIT  18 46 39.1%
2 Nash, Rick   CBJ  16 45 35.6%
3 Getzlaf, Ryan   ANA  15 42 35.7%
4 Toews, Jonathan   CHI  13 24 54.2%
5 Perry, Corey   ANA  11 33 33.3%
6 Bergeron, Patrice   BOS  11 41 26.8%
7 Richards, Mike   PHI  10 30 33.3%
8 Marleau, Patrick   SJ 7 23 30.4%
9 Iginla, Jarome   CGY  7 26 26.9%
10 Boyle, Dan   SJ 4 16 25.0%
11 Heatley, Dany   SJ 4 24 16.7%
12 Morrow, Brenden   DAL  2 4 50.0%
13 Doughty, Drew   LA 2 5 40.0%
14 Thornton, Joe   SJ 2 9 22.2%
15 Staal, Eric   CAR  2 12 16.7%
16 Seabrook, Brent   CHI  1 1 100.0%
17 Niedermayer, Scott   ANA  0 2 0.0%
18 Pronger, Chris   ANA  0 3 0.0%
19 Weber, Shea   NSH  0 1 0.0%
20 Keith, Duncan  CHI  0 0 0.0%

Toews, in other words, appears to have the best overall percentage among regular shooters, but looking at the numbers for this season, Crosby has been hot (six for eight). This table, however, explains why they went with Getzlaf in the third spot, and why Nash would have been No. 4 had Crosby not gone for a second go-round.

Expect those four to be taking all the shots if there's another one later on in the tournament.

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At 2:45 a.m., February 19, 2010, Blogger Ryan said...

How about the Ruskies going with Morozov in the shootout?

At 11:30 a.m., February 19, 2010, Blogger saskhab said...

Don't the stats point to Brent Seabrook as the obvious #1? :)

I would say I'm surprised Morrow has only been used 4 times, but Dallas has been one of the best shootout teams post-lockout from what I can remember, so obviously they know what they're doing there.

Actually, now with Getzlaf's miss, Nash has a higher percentage, so he should get the call next time.

At 2:15 p.m., February 19, 2010, Blogger GMF said...

That was an unbelievable game. That whole team is stacked with talent. I don't think that it took statistics to know you go with your best player. Crosby stands alone on that team.

This whole tournament is starting to get intense, and I think that looking at it from an American perspective, this Sunday might get ugly.

I just started to keep track on this on my blog, feel free to give me some feedback.

At 7:59 p.m., February 19, 2010, Blogger LW3H said...

I've complied similar numbers for all players in the Olympics with NHL shootout experience, if you're interested:


At 12:01 a.m., February 20, 2010, Blogger Hawerchuk said...

JM - don't forget regression to the mean! All we've got here are very small samples of their performance, as opposed to a measure of their true talent.

I hope the team's internal ranking of its shooters was based on a lot of breakaways in practice and not exclusively on your table!

At 1:28 a.m., February 20, 2010, Blogger James Mirtle said...

From the looks of it, Babcock was looking at the exact same table as I've got here - sample size or not.

At 3:26 a.m., February 20, 2010, Blogger Hawerchuk said...

Babcock's overthinking then. Toews is probably the best of the group, and even with him, we just don't know yet. The odds of anybody else in the top 10 being better or worse than average is pretty small. Any forward will do, really..

At 1:43 p.m., February 21, 2010, Blogger Bosc Ulrich said...

I don't know if this had anything to do with the decision, but Crosby and Toews can beat you in the shootout in a number of different ways. I keeps the goalie a little bit off-balance if you don't have a specific move that you always try to pull.


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